Chapter 13: The Secret of Success

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Welcome to the Deep Dive.

Today, we're digging into, well, a really big question about how human history actually unfolded, what really drove the way our societies ended up.

Exactly.

And you're joining us as we look at a chapter that really tries to get under the skin of this, looking at some major long -term trends.

Yeah, things like global trade, empires coming and going, universal religions spreading.

That's it.

It's all about figuring out how we went from, well, scattered groups to this massive interconnected world we have now.

And the chapter asks these, frankly, huge questions like, was this whole globalization bound to happen?

And why did these specific things, English being everywhere, Christianity, Islam, why did they become so dominant when presumably loads of others just faded away?

Good questions.

Okay.

So where do we start with unpacking all that?

Well, the first really big idea the source digs into is what it calls the hindsight fallacy.

Hindsight fallacy.

Yeah.

It's basically the trap of looking back and thinking, oh yeah, it had to happen this way.

Everything seems neat and tidy leading up to us right now.

But it wasn't like that at the time.

Not at all.

The reality is every single moment in history is like a crossroads.

There are countless paths branching off.

Okay.

Give me an example.

The chapter uses a really good one.

The Roman Empire, say fourth century AD,

Constantine picks Christianity.

Right.

Seems like a massive turning point looking back.

Definitely.

But, and this is the key point, Christianity wasn't the only game in town back then, not by a long shot.

Okay.

So what else was there?

Well, you still had traditional Roman polytheism, you know, belief in the old gods.

That was still very much alive.

And there were other big religious movements too, like Manichaeism gaining followers.

Manichaeism, right.

So the source makes this distinction.

It's one thing to describe how Christianity rose the events, the politics, Constantine's decision and all that, but it's much, much harder to explain why it was Christianity specifically and not one of the others that actually won out in the end.

We don't really have a definitive answer for that why.

Honestly, no.

The source suggests most historians are actually pretty skeptical of easy answers.

They don't buy into simple deterministic explanations, like saying it was all down to biology or the environment or economics.

It's more complicated.

Way more complicated.

And there's this interesting contrast the chapter draws.

People with just a surface level understanding, they might cook up these neat just -so stories about why things happen.

Like it was all meant to be.

Exactly.

But the people who really know their stuff, who've dug deep into the period, they're much more aware of all the possibilities, all the other ways things could have gone.

The road's not taken, as the source puts it.

It's funny, the people actually living through it often had no clue what was coming next.

That's a huge point the chapter makes.

Think about Christianity back in, say, 306 AD.

Just a relatively small sect, mostly in the East.

Okay.

Predicting then that it would become the official religion of the mighty Roman empire.

The text says that would have sounded as crazy as someone today saying, I don't know, Hare Krishna will be the main religion in the US by 2050.

Wow, okay.

That really frames it.

It does, doesn't it?

And there are other examples, like the Bolsheviks in Russia, 1913.

Tiny group of radicals.

Yeah.

Four years later, they're in charge.

I mean, who would have predicted that?

Almost impossible to imagine beforehand.

Or think about 600 AD.

The idea that some Arab tribes from the desert would sweep out and conquer this enormous empire from the Atlantic all the way to India.

It seems unbelievable.

The source calls the idea preposterous at the time, and it even feuds the idea.

What if that first big Byzantine army had actually managed to beat back the initial Muslim invasion?

Maybe Islam would have just stayed a minor regional thing.

And historians in that timeline would probably have perfectly logical explanations for why a religion based on one man's revelations in Mecca could never really spread far.

It's fascinating how context shapes those explanations.

Absolutely.

Now, the chapter isn't saying anything is possible.

There are constraints.

Geography matters, biology matters, economics sets limits.

But within those limits,

there's still this huge space for surprise, for things that aren't determined by some grand predictable force.

History isn't just following a script.

So the takeaway for us listening is,

don't assume the way things are now was the only way they could be.

Precisely.

Avoid that hindsight trap.

Seeing those roads not taken actually helps us think differently about the future, too.

And the source says this randomness, this lack of a clear path, can be kind of unsettling for people.

Yeah, especially if you want to believe that our current world with nation states and capitalism and human rights is somehow the natural, inevitable result of history.

Because if history is chaotic, then maybe those things aren't so inevitable after all.

Maybe they're more like historical accidents, fortunate ones perhaps, depending on your view, but accidents nonetheless.

Which leads into this idea of history as a chaotic system.

Right.

The chapter talks about two kinds of chaos.

There's level one chaos, think weather.

We can try to predict it, but our prediction doesn't change the weather itself.

Then there's level two chaos.

This is where things get interesting.

Level two systems react to predictions about them.

History is like this.

So are markets, politics.

How does that work?

The oil price example in the text is great.

Imagine someone creates a perfect computer model that predicts tomorrow's oil price.

What happens?

Well, everyone would trade based on that prediction.

Exactly.

And all that buying and selling would instantly change the price, making the original prediction wrong.

The prediction itself alters the system.

Ah, I see.

The system reacts.

The source applies this to revolutions like the Arab Spring.

They were fundamentally unpredictable because they were level two chaotic systems.

Imagine you had a supercomputer back then predicting Hosni Mubarak's downfall in Egypt on a specific date.

Okay.

If that prediction was somehow known, what would Mubarak do?

He'd change his tactics, maybe crack down harder, maybe offer concessions.

Right.

He'd react to the prediction.

Which would change the situation, meaning the revolution probably wouldn't happen exactly as predicted if it happened at all.

Predicting it changes it.

So trying to predict history in that detailed way is kind of futile.

Pretty much, according to this view.

So if you can't predict the future by studying history, what's the point?

Good question.

The source argues the real value isn't prediction, it's broadening our horizons.

Understanding that the present we live in wasn't inevitable.

Seeing the possibilities.

Yes.

Realizing that things could have been different, and therefore things could be different in the future.

We aren't locked into just one path forward.

The example about European domination and racism comes up here?

It does.

It powerfully illustrates that these weren't some natural outcomes of evolution or anything.

They were historical developments that could have gone other ways.

Understanding that history isn't predetermined is actually quite empowering, isn't it?

Yeah, I'd suggest we have more agency, maybe.

Okay, so history is unpredictable, chaotic.

Then the source brings in this figure, blind Cleo.

What's that about?

Right, Cleo is the traditional Greek muse of history.

Calling her blind here is a metaphor.

It means history doesn't, well, it doesn't make choices for the benefit of humans.

It's not trying to make us happier or better off.

There's no evidence for that, the chapter argues.

No grand plan ensuring human well -being increases over time.

Cultures that succeed and spread aren't necessarily the ones that are good for people.

That's a bit bleak.

And how do we even measure good or beneficial anyway?

Exactly.

That's another point.

There's no objective yardstick.

Different cultures define the good in totally different ways.

And surprise, surprise, the winners in history usually think their way is the best way.

Naturally.

So Christians think it was good that Christianity beat Manichaeism, but that's only if you accept the Christian worldview.

Right.

Muslims generally see the fall of the old Persian Sassan Empire as a good thing, paving the way for Islam.

Again, that's from a Muslim viewpoint.

The source even cheekily asks, maybe from a purely humanist perspective, we might have been better off if some of these huge religions hadn't become so dominant.

Wow.

Okay, so the fact that something exists or is widespread doesn't mean it's actually beneficial?

Not inherently, no.

Its success is about its ability to spread, to propagate itself, not necessarily about human flourishing.

Which ties into this analogy the source uses, comparing cultures to mental infections or parasites.

That sounds pretty extreme.

It's definitely a provocative analogy.

It compares cultural ideas to biological parasites, like viruses.

How so?

Well, a virus gets inside a host, uses the host's resources to make copies of itself, and then spreads to new hosts, right?

Often making the host sick or even killing them in the process.

Yeah.

The argument is that cultural ideas, memes, beliefs, ideologies can sometimes function like that.

Right.

Think about a powerful belief, maybe in reaching paradise after death or creating a perfect communist state on earth.

Okay.

Such beliefs can motivate people to do extraordinary things, make huge sacrifices, even give up their lives.

All to help that idea spread and replicate.

The idea survives, even if the individual host doesn't.

And this isn't like a conspiracy theory.

People aren't designing these mind viruses.

No, no, the source is clear on that.

It's not some secret cabal.

It's more that these ideas emerge kind of accidentally, and some just happen to be better at latching onto human lines and getting passed along.

They exploit us, in a way.

This sounds like mimetics.

Is that the term?

Exactly, yeah.

Mimetics.

Yeah.

It draws that parallel with genetics.

Genes are units of biological info that replicate.

Memes are supposed to be units of cultural info ideas, fashions, tunes, beliefs that replicate through human minds and societies.

So successful cultures are just good meme replicators.

From this perspective, yes.

Their success isn't measured by how happy or healthy they make their human hosts, but purely by how well their memes survive and spread.

The text mentions some humanity scholars aren't keen on mimetics, but connects it to postmodernism.

Yeah, there's some resistance to the term mimetics in certain academic circles.

But the underlying concept isn't actually that different from some postmodern ideas.

Postmodernists might talk about discourses instead of memes.

Discourses.

Yeah, like systems of thought, language, and power.

And they often see these discourses as self -perpetuating things that aren't necessarily focused on human well -being either.

Can you give an example?

Nationalism is the one the source uses.

From a certain postmodern viewpoint,

nationalism is like this incredibly successful, but often devastating discourse or mental plague.

It spread like wildfire, caused wars, immense suffering.

But the idea of the nation, the discourse of nationalism, survived and thrived.

Precisely.

It benefited itself in terms of its own survival and reproduction as an idea, even at enormous human cost.

Okay.

And then there's game theory mentioned as well.

How does that fit in?

Game theory offers another lens.

It helps explain how in systems with multiple interacting players like countries or even individuals,

patterns of behavior can emerge and spread even if they're ultimately bad for everyone involved.

Like the arms race example.

That's the classic one, yeah.

Two countries start building up weapons.

Neither feel safer.

They both spend a fortune they could use elsewhere.

The overall balance of power might not even change.

But neither side feels they can stop because the other one might get ahead.

Right.

It's this dynamic that takes hold, like a kind of competitive virus.

And it's incredibly hard to break out of, even though it's draining resources and potentially increasing risk for everyone.

So whether we call it memetics or postmodern discourse or game theory dynamics,

the bottom line is history isn't necessarily working for us.

That seems to be the core message here, yeah.

The cultures that went out historically, the ones that spread and last, aren't automatically the best for Homo sapiens.

History is like evolution in that way.

Just survival of the fittest idea, not the happiest human.

That's a good way to put it.

History, like evolution, seems pretty indifferent to individual suffering or happiness and as individuals.

Our power to steer the whole ship of history is actually quite limited most of the time.

Okay.

So the chapter kind of wraps up by looking at a really big turning point around 1500 AD, the Scientific Revolution.

Yeah, it flags that as a hugely significant moment.

But interestingly, it emphasizes how, well, how unlikely its origins seem.

It starts in Western Europe, which wasn't necessarily the most obvious place for it back then.

And we don't have one single perfect explanation for why it happened there and then.

Apparently not.

Lots of theories, the source says, but none that completely nail it.

Which again, just highlights the contingent nature of history.

It wasn't preordained.

Another road not taken situation.

History could have just carried on for ages without modern science emerging.

Easily, just like it could have gone on without Christianity becoming dominant or the Roman Empire rising or people using gold coins.

The Scientific Revolution could have been one of those historical possibilities that just never quite happened or happened much later,

somewhere else entirely.

But it did happen.

And the consequences, well, they've been enormous.

Absolutely world changing.

The chapter ends with that really stark image of the first atomic bomb test at Alamogordo.

Oppenheimer's quote.

Yeah.

Quoting the Bhagavad Gita, now I am become death, the destroyer of worlds.

A chilling reminder of the sheer power that this particular historical turn, the Scientific Revolution, ultimately unleashed.

Right.

So wrapping this up for you, our listener, we've journeyed through this chapter looking at what makes things succeed in history.

And the big takeaways seem to be, well, first, that history isn't some straight line.

It's full of unexpected turns and possibilities.

And second, that the success of a culture, an idea, a religion,

it's about its ability to spread and survive, which doesn't always line up with what's actually good for human beings.

History can be kind of blind in that sense.

Which leaves us with a pretty big question to ponder, doesn't it?

It certainly does.

If history is shaped by these chaotic, maybe even blind forces, what does that mean for us now?

What are our responsibilities in trying to navigate the present and thinking about the futures we might want to build?

Yeah.

How can understanding that things could have been different actually empower us to try and shape what comes next?

Something to think about.

And on that note, we can confirm we've covered the key arguments, the examples, the timeline points, pretty much everything from this section of our source material.

Thanks for joining us on this deep dive.